A Load of Crap

Captain Marlin Casino

I got the idea for this article while writing about dice setting. (If you've read the free sample chapter from my eBook, you'll know what I think about dice setting.) I thought about the ridiculous things (and sometimes downright lies) people say to separate you from your money. I thought about the shysters who spread their misguided and oftentimes flat-out wrong advice for beating the house. Then, I thought about the unfortunate who fall for such bogus claims and advice.

This article gives a small sample of the load of crap (pun intended) from various craps-related websites, followed by brief analyses of the sheer stupidity or dubious nature of their claims. If it weren't for the sad fact that people actually believe such crap, we'd find it entertaining. Learn from this article. Once and for all, get it through your head that craps is designed for you to lose. No system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist that will produce long-term gains for the player. The player cannot in any way gain a long-term advantage over the house, and that includes the latest trends in get-rich schemes that focus on dice setting. Don't be a sucker. Learn to play in reality, not in Fantasyland.

I took the following excerpts directly from some of the websites I scanned for 10 minutes after searching for "learn craps." These excerpts are not from blogs, forums, or discussion groups; they're from sites that sell craps-related products. My analyses and criticisms are based on my opinion and deemed valid until proven otherwise by a qualified and independent body.

Excerpt: "In my humble opinion, the pass line (and come) are the worst bets on the table. I understand about the 1.4% advantage and all, but has anyone actually calculated odds against, after the come out? I found two books a long time ago that stated the average against you, on the pass line after a point is established, is around 34-35%. That is to say, the odds against 'repeating' the point before a 7."

Analysis: This excerpt was taken from an article intended to provide tips and strategies or playing craps. In justifying his opinion that the Flat Pass Line and Flat Come bets are the worst bets on the table, the writer removes the come-out roll from the equation. That seems absurd. The house advantage on these two bets is so low because of the player's 2:1 advantage on the come-out roll. Indeed, the advantage shifts back to the house after the come-out, but that advantage can never shift without first going through the come-out, so trying to disregard it seems ridiculous.

Excerpt: "The only good bet is the place bets---and only for the 2 reasons, one they can be taken down at any time, and second you pick your numbers. The odds are much much much better when you try to throw one number instead of repeating it before a seven, and that is what people don't understand. What they also don't understand is that the seven should mathematically come up one out of every six rolls---and that is all rolls, not just box number rolls, but all of them. If someone walked up to a table and threw 2, 3, 12, 11, 2, 3, 11, 12, 2, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12, 2, his odds of throwing a seven are greater then the guy who throws 5, 6, 8, 9. How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention."

Analysis: This excerpt is from the same article as the first excerpt. Remember, this author supposedly knows the game and is passing his wisdom to you. Where do I start? The author's reasoning is based on the silly--and completely false--notion that outcomes of previous rolls influence future rolls. The author apparently believes in the Gambler's Fallacy. By the believing in the Gambler's Fallacy, the author proves his ignorance. No matter how many times a player rolls the dice, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll never change. So, the player throwing 14 rolls without hitting a 7 has the same odds of rolling a 7 on the next roll as the player who throws only four rolls without hitting a 7. The odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll for both players are exactly the same. Even if you rolled a million times without a 7 appearing, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll are exactly the same as if you had rolled only once. Results of previous rolls have no influence whatsoever on the odds of future rolls. The guy in the excerpt wonders, "How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention?" I can't help but laugh and wonder how many screws this guy has loose. The truly sad thing is that people read this guy's baloney, take it to be true, and then base their bets on it.

Excerpt: "This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public. When applied according to the rules presented, it is the most consistent money making craps method you are going to find and can reduce your risk of loss to less than 6%."

Analysis: You can play the Pass Line with Odds (or Don't Pass with Odds) and give the house an advantage of only about 1%. Lots of craps bets have house advantages much less than 6%, so touting a 6% risk of loss seems silly to me. I chuckled at the statement, "This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public." Yeah, okay, sure. LOL (laugh out loud). The following excerpt is taken from the same website.

Excerpt: "---As with any educational or entertainment program, results may vary and [name redacted] and its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result. Purchasers of the [name redacted] are encouraged to rigorously test and personally verify results before wagering on an outcome. All gambling involves risk no matter how good the method might be. Purchasers are advised to use the [name redacted] responsibly, implement a sound money management system, and wager only with funds that will not seriously affect their lifestyle or that of others closely associated with them."

Analysis: Again, I laughed. The website cleverly hooks you with claims of having a "professional" and "most consistent money-making" craps system. It fills you with hopes and dreams of beating the crap out of the casino. Then, after suckering you in, they cover their rear ends by including a disclaimer stating, "---its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result." I suspect that buyers of that bogus system never make it to the bottom of the web page to read the disclaimer. They're so hyped up on false hope of beating the casino for ga-zillions, they've already clicked the "Buy" button before getting anywhere near the disclaimer. If the system is so "professional" and if it truly is the "most consistent money-making craps method," why do they need to cover their rear ends with a disclaimer? Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Don't get conned into buying bogus winning systems. Learn to recognize bull manure. Don't get suckered into believing you can consistently beat the casino over time. You can't and won't. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

The next excerpt is lengthy, but I included it because I'm sure it'll entertain you as much as it did me.

Excerpt: "Here is a simple craps strategy that takes no skill and only two of the same bets each time you play. The writer of this method has never failed to make at least $200 per hour using this strategy. Now, with this report, you can do the same at any dice table anywhere in the world! This craps strategy has been kept within the inner circle of casino bangers for years - under a mutual gentlemen's agreement. We tried the [name redacted] on randomized computer print-outs and couldn't come close to losing through 8000 decisions! (Think how long you would have to stand at the tables for 8000 decisions.) We tried it at several casinos in Atlantic City, Vegas, Reno, and Tahoe. The damned thing just would not lose! With this system you won't care if the tables are hot or cold---you still win with this super craps strategy! A new shooter can throw three or four or more craps in a row and you win! A new shooter can throw three or four or more sevens in a row and you still win! A new shooter rolls a point, and sevens out on the next roll. Shooter after shooter can do this, and you still win! A shooter can throw 14 passes, or more or less, in a row, and you still win! A bunch of players in a row, can seven out after any amount of numbers, and you still win! Read this report and you'll find out that there is absolutely no roll of the dice that can hurt you with this system! Want to collect on every roll of the dice? Here is how to do it with four easy bets. Follow this method exactly and you'll go home a winner everyday!"

Analysis: Woohoo! Is this the Holy Grail, the Fountain of Youth, the mother of all systems that has eluded mankind forever? Woohoo! LOL. Yeah, right. Let me get this straight---no skill required---only need to make two bets at a time---and no matter what happens, I can win $200 per hour? Woohoo! I better hurry up and buy this system before the "casino bangers" put it back in their "inner circle" under lock and key and stop offering it to the paying public. Do I really need to analyze this mumbo-jumbo? Does anyone actually believe this crapola? Sadly, people apparently do, or the website probably wouldn't exist.

Excerpt: "I'm so positive that I can easily convert you from an inexperienced player into a master player with the skills of a pro that you may try all of my methods risk-free! I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play! Take up to a full year to learn, practice, and profit. Just remember, if your average daily winnings don't add up to several hundred dollars, don't forget that I will give you a 100% refund. It's that simple."

Analysis: This is from the same website as the previous excerpt and is typical of the guarantee that comes with many so-called winning craps systems. Read the words carefully. Let's analyze them. "---you may try all of my methods risk-free." It's risk-free because the seller offers a full refund, not because the system consistently wins over time. "I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play." Of course, they'll work, but will they win? Anyone can use any crazy system and it'll "work." The word "work" in this context simply means the system is a legitimate method for playing the game whether you win or lose with it. In the excerpt, if the word "work" were replaced with the word "win," then the seller would be at great risk because no system will consistently win over time. "---don't forget that I will give you a 100% refund." Remember, the guarantee is that you can get your money back, not that the system will consistently win. The problem with these kinds of guarantees is that many people either simply forget or don't try to get the refund after losing their shirts, or they try but get delayed so long they get disgusted and give up. The moral is, be skeptical of craps systems that come with guarantees. Ensure you fully understand the guarantee before buying. Focus on whether the craps system is guaranteed to win, or whether you're guaranteed to get to your money back after you lose your rear end. Note the carefully chosen words and understand their meanings, such as "can" instead of "will." One small word can, and usually will, make a big difference in the meaning of a sentence or an entire paragraph.

Starting to get the picture? Scams are everywhere. Don't be a sucker. Don't let your dreams of winning big blind you. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Excerpt: "Now for the first time, I'll show you how you can turn $40 into $50,000 in as little as 87 days with a new system of playing and winning at craps! What the casinos hope you will never find out about playing this elusive game, now it's possible to win 78% of the time. Using my system, you can win about three times out of four (up to 78% of the time, to be more specific). With my strategies, which are really a combination of the systems of the best pros that I've gambled with and learned from over the years, you can pick up everything you need to know to win at craps every time you play. You probably already know that craps is hands downs the best casino game based on the odds. What you may not know is that by using my ten-step system, you can actually turn the odds in your favor! That's right, using my craps strategies, which I've detailed in a brand new report called [name redacted] you can actually beat the house!"

Analysis: This claim seems to me to be as ridiculous as those that promise you can learn dice control. If you learn nothing else from reading my website, my free sample chapter, and my articles, you must understand and accept one important fact: the game is designed for you to lose. It's mathematically impossible for the player to gain an advantage over the house. Say it out loud, slowly, and let it sink into your brain---it's mathematically impossible for the player to gain an edge over the house no matter what combination of bets or bet amounts are used. Therefore, the guy's statement about his system, "---you can actually turn the odds in your favor," is total crap. Period. If the guy's system relies on dice control to gain the advantage, then run for the hills as quick as you can because you might get run over by another flood of bull manure. After reading my free sample chapter, you know what I think of dice control and dice setting. The phenomenon called "distribution variance" is what allows players to win in the short-term. Nothing else. No fancy system, no silly dice-setting technique, nothing. Got it? The house always wins in the long-term. No player can beat the house over time. You must understand and accept that fact. The truly knowledgeable player plays for the fun, excitement, and the occasional short-term win, not because of any silly belief that he can actually beat the house consistently over time. You must not yield to your strong desire to win an easy buck. Instead, you must be smart, you must play smart, and you must learn the secret to craps. In the excerpt above, the guy states, "---you can win about three times out of four (up to 78% of the time, to be more specific)." Then, he proudly states, "---everything you need to know to win at craps every time you play." This guy can't even keep his apparent lies straight! In one breath, he says you'll win three out of four times, and then in his next breath he says you'll win every time you play. So, which is it? Do you win only 78% of the time that you play or do you win every time you play (i.e., 100%)? LOL (laugh out loud). Remember, don't be a sucker.

Excerpt: "[Name redacted], the author of [name redacted] system has developed a unique a way to win at the dice table. He is talking about walking away with a handsome win, not breaking the table. The [name redacted] system is a Place bet system designed for a conservative approach to the game of craps. It has an exact play for every roll of the dice. Each and every hit in the [name redacted] system pays you a profit. Each hit puts more money in your pocket. The game of craps was created to make money for the casino. The [name redacted] system makes money for the player. If you're willing to put in a little bit of time to learn, and apply the rules in a responsible, controlled way you WILL make a profit! You cannot lose in [name redacted]. Order the [name redacted] beginner's system for $120, delivered by e-mail, or $125 for a printout sent by first class mail."

Analysis: First of all, if this guy gets $120 for his eBook, then I must be charging way too little for mine! LOL. This guy's system can't possibly be a consistent long-term winner because he states that it involves Place bets, all of which have built-in house advantages that you can't overcome no matter what combinations or amounts of Place bets you make. Because it's a mathematical fact that no combination of bets (including Place bets) can result in a player advantage, the obvious question you should ask is whether this guy is a total idiot or lying through his teeth to rip you off when he states, "You cannot lose---." I still can't get over the fact that he gets $120 for his eBook. I wonder how many he's actually sold. You better hurry up and buy my eBook for a measly $9.95 before I jack up the price to a hundred bucks!

Before reading the next excerpt, ensure your Hip Waders are pulled up as high as they can go. Disclaimer: I cannot be held liable in any way if you drown in this guy's bull manure. Continue reading at your own risk!

Excerpt: "Earn a living playing craps, can it be done? The answer is yes. To date, all of our students average $1,000 to $3,000 a day playing craps and I can show you how you can join the club. Average $100 to $325 per hour every day you play craps using our [name redacted] craps system/strategy. We guarantee it! Even if you have never played the game of craps before, you can learn our [name redacted] system quickly and easily. In fact, we provide the only effective craps system that is capable of winning long term and it is not complicated at all. Fact: Our craps system is so good, that you will make a bare minimum of $1000 the very first day you use it, or you are entitled to a 100% money back guarantee. Please note, we did not say 'might be able to make $1000,' we said 'every single person who has used our system makes an average of $1000 or $3000 per day, every day that they choose to play.' Our most advanced players average from $900 to $1500 per hour!"

Analysis: I think this guy's load of crap is hysterical. Let's see if I understand it correctly: it's the only effective system capable of winning long-term, it's not complicated, you can learn it quickly and easily, it's guaranteed, the beginner can win up to $3,000 per day every day, and the advanced player can win up $1,500 per hour every day (which equates to $15,000 per 10-hour day). Woohoo! This is a get-rich-quick sucker's dream come true. It's easy to learn (no effort or energy needed) and as a beginner you can win up to $3,000 per day every day, which means you can make more than $1,000,000 per year with minimal effort, minimal skill, and minimal knowledge. Well, golly gee wilickers! We better run out and buy this system right now because every hour we wait, we lose $325. No analysis of this excerpt is needed. If it doesn't seem absurd to you, then you deserve to lose your shirt.

Excerpt: "The preferred grip for you is the one that you feel the most comfortable with, has the least amount of friction and skin on the dice, and that produces the best results for you personally. You will need to practice as much as possible to produce the best results. Before you go to a casino for a session, practice on your practice box, or in the hotel drawer just for a warm up to see how your throw is today, before the session. This will save you a lot of units and help save your bankroll!"

Analysis: This excerpt addresses the wonderful world of dice-setting---a world, in my opinion, called Fantasyland. One short sentence should be enough for you to realize the bull manure this guy is feeding you. "Before you go to a casino for a session, practice on your practice box, or in the hotel drawer just for a warm up to see how your throw is today, before the session." What? A hotel dresser drawer? Good grief. Even the dumbest moron should realize how stupid that is. A hotel dresser drawer doesn't have the same bounce characteristics and friction coefficient as a craps table, and a dresser drawer doesn't have the little pointy rubber pyramids (spikes) on the back wall that a craps table has. So, how could practicing in a three-foot-wide dresser drawer foretell anything about how your toss will be on a 12-foot craps table? In my opinion, this easily rates as one the dumbest statements I've ever read. When you read nonsense like that, it should raise a red flag for you to be cautious of

the rest of the crap the guy is trying to sell you.

The following are several excerpts combined into one. I found them embedded throughout a well-liked and respected craps-related website. Personally, I don't know why it's so respected because, in my opinion, it has no legitimacy. It deals with dice setting. To understand my disdain for the idea of dice setting, please read the free sample chapter of my eBook.

Excerpts from the dice-setting website: "Craps can be beaten---. There is only one way to beat craps in the long run and that is through precision shooting and dice control---. Craps can be beaten by changing the nature of the game from a mathematical and random contest, where the casino has built in the edge for itself, to a physical contest, where the person who shoots the dice can gain the edge by skill---. Dice control is a physical skill that can be learned by disciplined players who are willing to practice and perfect the techniques we teach them… Our teachers are the greatest dice control specialists in the world, many with books and major publications to their credit, all with years of winning casino experience behind them---. This craps strategy is called dice control, precision shooting, or rhythmic rolling---. There are no 'board certified' dice controllers yet. Everyone is self-certified; that is to say, you have to take them at their word---. The [name redacted] board of directors wanted [name redacted] to have the highest standards of excellence in the budding field of dice control. To do this, we set up tough criteria for our instructors and coaches to meet. They had to be skilled shooters and good teachers---. These criteria have been established to standardize and elevate the teaching of dice control by subjecting our teachers to a rigorous certification process that makes sure they understand, can demonstrate and can effectively teach all the essential areas of our curriculum."

Analysis: For analysis of this claim, and all other claims about the merits of dice control, read the free sample chapter of my eBook. In the sample chapter, I don't go into detail about the certification of so-called dice-control specialists, so I'll talk a bit about it here. I must admit, this guy's website is well-written and I respect the writer, not because I agree with the message, but because I like the writing. The author did a particularly wonderful job dreaming up and explaining the certification process. The idea actually sounds legitimate. However, in my opinion, it's simply a well-crafted and well-written part of an elaborate scheme to separate you from your money. The author goes into a lengthy excuse for the fact that the certification program for their dice-control instructors was developed, executed, and managed by the same people trying to sell you the product. The sophisticated excuse does a fantastic job of explaining why no independent authority exists that can administer the certification process. I suggest that you think twice about the validity of the explanation. Any certification process not developed, executed, and administered by an independent organization should immediately raise a red flag in your brain. If the certification authority is the same bunch who's selling the product, it's like sending the fox to guard the hen house. In my opinion, the reason an independent organization still doesn't exist after so many years since the idea of dice setting was born is because dice setting can't be proven to be legitimate over the long-term. (Read the free sample chapter to find out why I feel this way.) In the 30 or 40 years that so-called dice-control specialists have been around, surely some entrepreneur somewhere would have formed an independent organization to test and certify dice setters. However, according to the excerpt, no such independent organization exists. Makes you wonder doesn't it?

As these excerpts show, the Internet (and many books, magazine articles, and other resources) is crammed full of ridiculous claims designed for one thing--to get your money. If you want to play craps, you must get over your blazing desire to make an easy buck. You must plant yourself in reality. You must learn to play smart. You must accept the fact that no craps system exists that allows you to gain an advantage over the casino. Don't fall for bogus strategies and wacky dice-setting schemes that claim they can consistently win you tons of money. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps. Armed with facts instead of false hope, you'll be a strong weapon against the casino.